Reading Roundup 2018–12
As always, a link is not an endorsement.
As always, a link is not an endorsement.
Read
Tyler Cowen & Paul Romer chat Immigration, Orthgraphy, Kanban
“I think we should talk about a trilemma for migration, which is three things, and we can only have two out of the three… One of the things we want is local democratic accountability for the officials in the government. The second would be equal treatment under the law. And the third is, in this jurisdiction, the ability to absorb large numbers of migrants, potentially numbers that are bigger than the existing population.”
Your Intuition Is Wrong, Unless These 3 Conditions Are Met
How to develop good intuition:
- Train on something with rules and patterns that can be learnt. Chess has rules, the stock market does not.
- Get immediate feedback.
- Practice, practice, practice.
Notwithstanding my previous recommendation to listen to Conversations with Tyler, Tyler’s conversation with Daniel Kahhneman is probably not worth listening to. Read this article instead, then listen to Paul Romer and Tyler.
What the Sydney Opera House teaches us about Brexit
Planning fallacy and optimism bias are my favourite biases. Among the best antidotes is to run a pre-mortem, Red Teaming, selecting an appropriate reference class, and opening a betting market.
“Alas, most British politicians are wary of seeming negative or timid about Brexit, for fear of implying the electorate was unwise. Instead, both government and opposition have embraced the goal of leaving while enjoying all the benefits of staying — hardly a clear-eyed exercise in spotting obstacles.”
The Secret to Ant Efficiency Is Idleness
Ask your self each week, how many people depend on me? How can I reduce my dependency tasks to, say, five.
“The reason, it seems, is that the ants were working in narrow tunnels where traffic jams could easily clog up the entire effort to build nests. So it helped if some of them took a pileup in the tunnel as a signal to suggest that they take a break.”
Fallout 76 player begs Bethesda for the sweet relief of death
There’s a broader point here about the ethics of human longevity.
“I’ve had to limit myself to more boring activities because I do not want my exploration, or the PvP aspect ruined by my godmode… what the heck am I supposed to do besides actually starting to make all content in the game trivial? I’m really frustrated and I have no idea what I’m supposed to do.”
Suicide is declining globally
The evidence all points to a general, global reduction in suicide. Do we feel that the opposite it true because it’s the leading cause of death in Australian 15–44 years olds, when it is most preventable and tragic?
“As people move to cities and the grip of tradition loosens, women have more choice about whom they marry or live with, making life more bearable. Leaving the village helps in another way, too. Because farming involves killing things, rural folk are likelier to have the means to kill themselves — guns, pesticides — to hand. …
Policy plays a role, too. When Mikhail Gorbachev restricted the production and distribution of booze in the mid-1980s, both drinking and suicide fell sharply. The collapse of the Soviet Union swept those regulations aside, and both drinking and suicide shot up again. Restrictions introduced by Vladimir Putin in 2005 are reckoned to have contributed to the recent decline. …
Suicide is surprisingly impulsive. A study of young Chinese women who had tried to kill themselves showed that three-fifths had been contemplating suicide for less than two hours, and one in ten for less than a minute. Of 515 people who had survived the leap from San Francisco’s Golden Gate bridge between 1937 and 1971, 94% were still alive in 1978 — which suggests that a suicide postponed is likely to be a suicide prevented.”
Headspace vs. Calm: The Meditation Battle That’s Anything but Zen
“Calm has topped the category in both downloads and mobile revenue since last December, with revenue through October at $50.7 million, according to estimates from mobile-data firm Sensor Tower. Headspace, now in second place, saw revenue of $34.3 million.”
Listen
Smiling Mind
If you’re trying to relax more, I recommend Smiling Mind. It’s a not-for-profit mindfulness app with a pleasing Australian accent. I’ve used it for better sleep and very much enjoy it. I hope you do too.
Political Research Digest
Political research digest is a fortnightly version of exactly what it says on the tin. Matt Grossman at the Niskanen Centre interviews political scientists on their new research for the gentle summarisation of all.
For example, “How Americans’ Politics Drives Their Religious Views”
- All Americans become less religious in their youth but White Republicans and Black Democrats are likely to become religious when they start a family.
- Politics drives religion as much as religion drives politics. After the election of famous Catholic Democrat John F Kennedy, Protestant Democracts and Catholic Republicans were less likely to attend church.
- There is no neat distinction between atheistic Democrats and religious Republicans. Black Democrats are very religious. Only actively secular whites are strong Democratic. Passively secular and evangelical whites are strongly Republican.
- Politicians lose support if they identify as an atheist. But they lose very little support if they instead say “I don’t currently practice a religion.”
https://niskanencenter.org/blog/niskanen-centers-podcast/
Watch
Thaler & Sunstein Discuss Nudge
- People approach an identical risk-likelihood very differently if it’s the status quo or not.
- Partisans are divided more by facts than values. (Though I wonder how often facts stand in for values and inter-group status competition.)
- Cass Sunstein isn’t that into food, is very into John Stuart Mill. Book on Hayek
- Nudges include GPS, auto-enrolment in voting and food programs, calorie labels, default number of prescribed drugs (e.g. opiods).
- Choice architecture is unavoidable. If you do anything you must design it. To not choose is just another choice.
